WASHINGTON — Elections in Florida and Wisconsin have become key tests of President Donald Trump’s political standing two months into his second White House term.
The marquee race Tuesday is for a swing seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a technically nonpartisan election that has drawn at least $90 million in spending. Trump and billionaire adviser Elon Musk are backing conservative judge Brad Schimel while progressive billionaires and Democrats support liberal Susan Crawford.
Two Republican-friendly Florida congressional seats could give the GOP some breathing room in the narrowly divided chamber. But Democrats in both districts have far outraised their GOP counterparts, and national Republicans have been publicly concerned in particular about the race to replace Mike Waltz, now Trump’s national security adviser.
Here are the places to watch as the vote results are reported on election night:
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win by large margins in the populous counties of Milwaukee and Dane (home of Madison). But the size of that win is usually a big factor in who wins statewide, especially in a close contest.
In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris carried Milwaukee with 68% of the vote and Dane with 75% while narrowly losing statewide. That same night, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin ran about 2 percentage points ahead of Harris in both counties and narrowly won reelection.
In 2023, the Democratic Party-backed Supreme Court candidate Janet Protasiewicz received 73% of the vote in Milwaukee and 82% of the vote in Dane and went on to win statewide by an 11-percentage-point margin.
Republicans tend to do well in the suburban Milwaukee counties of Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha — the so-called “WOW” counties. A strong Republican showing in these counties can help counter the Democratic advantage in urban areas. Republican candidates have carried all three counties in every major statewide election going back to at least 2016.
Republican candidates tend to win Brown County, which is home to Green Bay, but not by huge blowouts. Trump carried the county in all three of his presidential campaigns with between 52% and 53% of the vote.
But since the 2016 election, there have been two Democrats who carried Brown County and went on to win statewide: Tony Evers in his bid for governor in 2018 and more recently Protasiewicz in her 2023 state Supreme Court race.
A Democrat can still win statewide without winning Brown (such as Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, Evers’ reelection in 2022 and all three of Baldwin’s U.S. Senate runs). But if they do carry Brown, it’s probably going to be a rough night for Republicans.
Sauk County, northwest of Madison, is a competitive area in statewide elections that usually ends up supporting the Democratic candidate, albeit by slim margins. It falls somewhere in the middle of Wisconsin’s 72 counties in terms of population, and the margins are usually so small that statewide elections aren’t typically won or lost in Sauk.
Democrats or Democratic-backed candidates had a long winning streak in Sauk, having carried the county in eight of the last 10 major statewide elections. But the two exceptions are notable: Trump carried Sauk in 2016 and 2024, when he won Wisconsin and the White House.
While Sauk won’t likely place a decisive role in Tuesday’s elections, a victory there by a Republican-backed candidate may be a good sign for the party statewide.
Democrats are encouraged by the strong fundraising performances of their nominees to replace Waltz and former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, but the special elections take place in two congressional districts that have long been safe Republican territory.
Trump received about 68% of the vote in 2024 in the Florida Panhandle’s 1st Congressional District, slightly outperforming the 66% Gaetz received in his reelection bid. In the 6th Congressional District on the Atlantic coast, Trump received roughly 65% of the vote, just behind the 67% Waltz received in his final House reelection bid.
The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years. Only Walton County went for a Democrat on one occasion since 1960, although all four voted for Democrat-turned-independent candidate George Wallace in 1968. Today, the part of Walton County that falls within the 1st District is the most reliably Republican of the four counties.
Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the 6th District for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944. Trump and Waltz performed best in Putnam County, where they both received about 74% of the vote.
If Democrats manage to pull off upsets in either the 1st or 6th districts, the first indications may be in their best performing counties.
Given the Republican advantage in both districts, the Democrats’ best areas are still places where Republicans performed well. In the 1st District, Trump and Gaetz did comparatively the worst in Escambia County, although they still received 59% and 57% of the county vote, respectively.
In the 6th District, Democrats may do best in Volusia County, where Trump received 58% and Waltz received about 60%. Republican presidential candidates have carried Volusia in the last four elections, but the area used to be more friendly territory for Democrats, who won the county for six consecutive elections from 1992 through 2008.