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Why AP declared Hogan the winner in Maryland’s GOP Senate primary: Race call explained

Ahala Software > Blog > News > Why AP declared Hogan the winner in Maryland’s GOP Senate primary: Race call explained
  • May 15, 2024
  • News


WASHINGTON — Topping the list of contests in Tuesday’s primaries in four states is a U.S. Senate race in Maryland that has further complicated Democratic efforts to keep control of the narrowly divided chamber this fall.

The Associated Press declared former Gov. Larry Hogan the winner of the Republican U.S. Senate primary at 8:38 p.m. ET, while the competitive Democratic primary was still too early to call. The AP will only declare a winner once it can determine that a trailing candidate can’t close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here are the primaries at a glance:

Candidates: Former Gov. Larry Hogan, former state Rep. Robin Ficker, five others

Winner: Hogan

Called at: 8:38 p.m. ET

Poll closing time: 8 p.m. ET

About the race: Hogan’s late entry into the GOP primary gave his party a rare pick-up opportunity in a usually reliable Democratic state that last sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 1980. The two-term governor has been a vocal critic of former President Donald Trump and briefly flirted with a presidential bid last year. Hogan’s opposition to Trump might appeal to moderates and independents in the general election, but it could have created an opening for a candidate from the right to win over Trump supporters in the more conservative corners of the state. Ficker was Hogan’s chief opponent for the GOP nomination. He’s a former state representative, a recently disbarred attorney and frequent candidate. Before Hogan entered the race, Ficker had the biggest war chest of the rest of the Republican field. He has also run television advertisements aligning himself with Trump and his policies.

Why AP called the race: At the moment the AP declared Hogan the winner in the GOP primary, he led Ficker by about 67% to 25%, with most of the state reporting partial results. Hogan more than doubled Ficker’s performance in central and more conservative Western Maryland, as well as on the Eastern Shore. Those areas were Ficker’s best chance of winning over Trump supporters who might have been alienated by Hogan’s opposition to the former president.

Ficker led Hogan in some of the counties Hogan lost in his successful 2014 primary bid for governor, such as Somerset, Dorchester and Garrett but not by nearly enough to offset Hogan’s leads elsewhere in the state.

In the more populous areas of Prince George’s county in the Washington suburbs and in Baltimore City and Baltimore County, Hogan more than tripled Ficker’s vote totals at the time the race was called. Montgomery County, also in the Washington suburbs, had not reported results at the time the winner was declared, but by 9 p.m. ET, Hogan had more than quadrupled Ficker’s vote total in the state’s most populous county. These are some of the most Democratic-friendly counties in the state, where more moderate voters helped propel Hogan to his gubernatorial primary victory in 2014. Hogan was also far ahead of Ficker both among votes cast before primary day as well as votes cast in-person on primary day, and those leads have grown since the race was called.

Candidates: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, U.S. Rep. David Trone, eight others

Poll closing time: 8 p.m. ET

About the race: Alsobrooks and Trone are in a competitive race for the Democratic nomination to replace Democratic incumbent Ben Cardin, who is retiring after three terms.

The contest pits candidates from the state’s two most populous counties: Montgomery and Prince George’s. Trone represents the northern portion of Montgomery County in Congress, along with all of more conservative Western Maryland. Alsobrooks is the chief executive in Prince George’s County, the state’s second most populous county and the county with the highest share of Black residents in the state. If elected, Alsobrooks would become the first Black U.S. Senator in the state’s history.

Trone is co-founder and co-owner of wine retailer Total Wine and poured more than $61 million of his own money into the race, far outspending Alsobrooks.

Much of the state’s Democratic establishment has rallied behind Alsobrooks, namely Gov. Wes Moore, U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen and almost all of the state’s U.S. House delegation. She also recently won the endorsement of The Washington Post.



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