WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials at a meeting last month pointed to rising risks that inflation could worsen, a key reason they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
According to minutes of the Jan. 28-29 meeting, which were released Wednesday, Fed officials said that President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and mass deportations of migrants, as well as strong consumer spending, were factors that could push inflation higher this year.
The Fed’s 19 officials who participate in its interest-rate decisions indicated that “they would want to see further progress on inflation before making” any further cuts. They kept the Fed’s key rate at 4.3%, after cutting it from a two-decade high of 5.3% late last year. The Fed’s pause makes it less likely that borrowing costs for consumers, including for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, will decline anytime soon.
Just last week, the government released data that suggested inflation was actually getting worse, leading many economists to forecast just one — if any — rate cut this year. Consumer prices rose 3% in January from a year ago, the Labor Department said, up from a 3 1/2 year low of 2.4% last September. The Fed, however, more closely follows a separate inflation measure that is shows inflation is closer to 2.5%.
The minutes also cited a “high degree of uncertainty” surrounding the economy, which made it appropriate for the Fed to “take a careful approach” in considering any further changes to its key interest rate.
All of the Fed’s policymakers supported keeping its key rate unchanged last month, the minutes said. The unanimity comes after signs of a growing disagreement in recent months between those officials who supported further rate reductions and those more worried about stubborn inflation.
A key issue, particularly on Wall Street, is how long the Fed’s pause on rate cuts will last. Wall Street investors expect the central bank won’t cut again until July, according to futures prices. They don’t forecast a second cut until 2026.
Many Fed officials have also said they want to see how Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration crackdown affect the economy. Most economists forecast that the tariffs will push up inflation, though some also argue that Trump’s promises to reduce regulation could lower consumer prices over time.
On Monday, Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech in Australia that he still expects rates to come down this year, but for now he supports a pause.
Waller said that if the inflation uptick last month turns out to be a blip, as it did in January 2024, “rate cuts would be appropriate at some point this year.”
Waller also said that he didn’t think new tariffs would significantly raise inflation, and added that any increase in prices would likely be temporary. As a result, he said the Fed shouldn’t necessarily change its policies because of tariffs.
“I haven’t altered my outlook based on what has been implemented to date,” he said, referring to Trump’s tariff announcements.