The Congressional Budget Office has shrunk its projections for the U.S. population in 30 years to 372 million residents, a 2.8% drop from last year, citing declining birth rates and less expected immigration.
The budget office last year projected 383 million people living in the United States in 30 years but reduced that figure by 11 million residents in projections released this week. The U.S. had an estimated 341 million residents on New Years’ Day and is expected to grow to 350 million people by year’s end.
Population growth will slow over the next three decades. In the next 10 years, the yearly growth rate in the United States will be on average, 0.4% but then it slows down on average to 0.1% between 2036 and 2055, the budget office said.
The overall yearly growth rate over the next three decades, 0.2%, is projected to be less than a quarter of what it was from 1975 to 2024.
Without immigration, the U.S. population will shrink starting in 2033 in part “because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” the Congressional Budget Office said.
The reduced projections from last year were the results of a decline in projected fertility rates over 30 years from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman and less immigration because of an executive order last June that temporarily suspends asylum processing at the border when U.S. officials deem they are overwhelmed, the budget office said. Replacement happens at a rate of 2.1 births per woman.
The Congressional Budget Office releases population projections each year to guide decisions on the federal budgets and the economy as well as estimating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits.
The Congressional Budget Office’s projections are higher than those made by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau counts the resident population, while the CBO projects includes the resident population as well as U.S. citizens and others living abroad who are eligible for those benefits. The CBO’s projections also predict higher immigration.
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